like il-03, there are new endorsements that have been announced since the first post. john laesch has gotten the afl-cio endorsement [PDF], the endorsement of pdachicago, and the endorsement of the western regional council of the united electrical, radio & machine workers of america.
bill foster has increased his growing list of endorsements with endorsements by senator durbin, afscme state council 31, planned parenthood, seiu as well as 22 nobel prize winners and a growing list of voters.
jotham stein got the endorsement of harry katz, dean of cornell university’s school of industrial and labor relations, which i failed to mentioned before.
the local papers have been covering the fact that there is a special election in the district. the daily herald covered both the opening of candidate’s petition drives and the first day of filing:
Laesch, a Newark carpenter who challenged Hastert a year ago, turned in more than 1,700 signatures and Foster, a former Fermilab scientist from Geneva, had 1,832.
The top Republican and Democratic vote-getters in the special primary will compete in the special general election March 8 to fulfill the remainder of Hastert’s term, which ends in January 2009.
a candidate’s forum was held in st charles for candidates of both parties. the three major democrats attended, and the daily herald, the st charles republican and kane county chronicle covered the fireworks. so did aurora’s openline blog. openline also gave more general coverage of the race.
kendall county democrats have set up their own board for following this race.
several outlets picked up the dueling endorsements of durbin for foster and afl-cio for laesch. rich miller’s capitol fax blog noted that, “Both of these endorsements are important in a Democratic primary, and neither will come with a whole lot of cash.” the beacon news and courier news covered it, as did the kane county chronicle. aurora’s openline blog hit at this angle. both the daily herald and the chicago tribune’s clout street blog covered the dueling unions (afl-cio and afscme) angle.
laesch was interviewed for the progressive news daily podcast. he also live blogged at firedoglake. the campaign congratulated their “all-volunteer army of John’s friends and neighbors in the 14th district” for getting on the special election ballot. wurfwhile covered laesch’s endorsement by the alf-cio and was late in his coverage of laesch’s november press conference (but not for the video of it. otoh, archpundit points out that laesch’s energy statement supports banning corn-based ethanol, and takes contradictory positions on spending money on scientific research. he also points out the irony of anger at planned parenthood’s endorsement of foster, when he refused “to accept donations from pro-abortion rights political action committees” in 2006.
jotham stein got coverage for his education proposal in the daily herald and for filing his paperwork for the special election. stein was also busy on the airwaves, getting interviewed on the mike koolidge show and wls’ connected to chicago
foster has been the big winner of news coverage, both local and national, this time. us news and world report reported on the foster as scientist angle. george bush’s assault on science is getting attention everywhere. the beacon news covered foster’s energy plan. the kane county chronicle covered durbin’s endorsement of foster. several of the sun-times local papers covered planned parenthood’s endorsement of foster: here and here.
foster is also getting lots of local blog support. hiram wurf talked about his endorsement of foster, other key endorsements, the durbin endorsement, the afscme endorsement, the planned parenthood endorsement, the trouble seeing foster’s grassroots support, and the seiu endorsement. archpundit had stories about foster’s endorsements and foster’s new commercial.
aaron krager, of faithfully liberal, blogged about his volunteer stint for the foster campaign as well as foster hitting the air waves. clout street also covered foster’s new cable ad. nosugrefneb talks about a letter making the rounds of scientists and grad students at the university of chicago, university of illinois at chicago and northwestern. prairie state blue covered foster’s live blogging for dailykos, including video of the session. that blog also covered foster’s nerdiness. aurora’s openline blog wonders why foster accepted the planned parenthood endorsement.
john laesch has a spiffy new website up (link above) that is more high res and feature rich. the text for the site seems to be the same, but it now includes a photo suitable for print media and a flickr photostream. i hadn’t noticed before (so it may be new), but the site encourages you to “Nominate John Laesch at Democracy for America” but it has (so far) failed to apply for the dfa endorsement. (campaigns can apply at this link). one new feature, it’s spanish translation, hasn’t been completed yet. nonetheless, this is a great improvement. simple, easy to navigate, eye candy. laesch also has a new youtube video.
stein also has a new video up on his website (link above) that focuses on family. stein’s spanish page IS in spanish! (not new, just the contrast.)
foster has a new cable ad running. they also have a new brand across the web reminding everyone of the special election on march 8th. looking past the february 5th elections, are we?
given the proximity of christmas, you might think that the campaigns would be slowing down. not happening. the laesch campaign begins its gotv training on saturday at 10:30. the stein campaign will continue to release his ideas and positions on the issues and volunteers are working out of the campaign headquarters to communicate with supporters and people who signed their petitions. the foster has begun an email campaign asking their low dollar donors to recommit for the special election or to bring in a new donor to our campaign.
outlook
if the first posts in this series was designed to lay a foundation, this next group will be focused on looking at the fundamentals in this race. like blocking and tackling decide football games, the fundamentals decide elections. there are five fundamentals that are thought to be decisive in the outcome of elections:
1. the candidates
2. money
3. the environment (deciding factors that campaigns can’t change)
4. the climate (deciding factors that campaigns can influence)
5. their organizations
probably the biggest factor right now in this race is the political environment. and the most important environmental factor is the upcoming special election. the fact that the special election is a month away from the special primary focuses all attention on this question: who scales up fastest? the campaigns have six weeks to identify supporters and then educate them on voting twice for them on the same ballot (once for the general election and again for the special election). the campaigns already lost a week or so because they had to circulate petitions (again) for the special election. christmas and new year’s will cost them some more time. this is even more true for the laesch campaign (and possibly stein’s), since they are so dependent on volunteer expertise. the foster campaign staff will undoubtedly work the same amount during that week. (i worked on christmas day last year, so i sympathize.)
one of the questions asked of the campaigns dealt with their candidates. the laesch campaign was unable to participate, since they are currently flooded with questionaires that they are working on. still no word whatsoever from the serra campaign.
the stein campaign argues:
we have the best candidate because our candidate represents the district best. Jotham may be a lawyer but at one point he was a cabby and struggling to make it through college. On the other hand he has done fairly well in life and represents that portion of the population of this district too. So he has seen both ends of the spectrum. Also Jotham at least knows what the issues are, one of the candidates goes way to far to the left for this district, and the other well he doesn’t like to talk issues he just throws money at the problem of winning a primary. The other thing is, I’m willing to bet that jotham has knocked on more doors and spoken one on one with more voters then the other two.
Jotham speaks so well to voters on the issues. Jotham has been the first to stand on a lot of issues that the other two guys have been trying to make hay out of. Jotham was the first to say he was against an ID card, Laesch had a press release about how he was against them. Foster came out against global warming and for renewable fuels, I hate to say it but Jotham has been talking about that since the beginning and with a better plan then Foster’s that everyone can benefit from. I believe if folks could have a sit down chat with Jotham on the issues they would support him.
foster’s campaign chimes in:
Bill Foster is the only candidate with deep roots in the community, a background of solving problems that appeals to voters and the only candidate with the resources to compete against entrenched Washington Republicans who will fight like hell to save this seat.
He has spent a lifetime changing institutions for the better and when he puts his mind to it, he has always met with remarkable success. When Bill worked on integrated circuits, he first learned how to make and design integrated circuits so he could lead a team of designers. When Bill entered politics, he did it as an activist in a campaign that had little chance of succeeding. He is the only candidate who knows how to put together a winning team.
they further argue:
That as a scientist and a businessman Bill is a refreshing change of pace from the usual politician. He makes decisions based on facts, not the fictional reality that partisanship demands. He also is uniquely able to make a huge impact on technical areas like energy policy because he can tell you if something can work in the lab and in the business plan.
all in all, the three main candidates in this race all come with flaws. some argue that foster is charisma-challenged and too impressed by his intelligence, others believe that laesch has a messianic complex, and stein is too policy-focused and that hasn’t yet caught on (it’s late, there’s only a little time left to do so). i’d call any comparison of these three candidates a draw — a gambler might say, pick ’em — but the contrast with il-10, where you have two high-energy, dynamic candidates couldn’t be more stark.
does this matter? well, yeah. in part, because voters are starting to feel the pain. the foster campaign notes that:
Voters are still talking about all the problems we need to solve, especially ending the war. Their newest concern is the nervousness about the economic situation in the US because of the mortgage crisis.
the stein campaign observes some differentiation in the concerns of the district:
In a place like Aurora, their worried about Jobs and the current housing mess. In a place like Geneva, their worried about more taxes. Out west in a place like Geneseo, its jobs. A lot of the people out west work in places like Davenport and Moline, that’s outside the district, and are worried about places like John Deere and the Arsenal and Alcoa. Currently there are no problems, but there are rumors that John Deere will be moving their HQ out of the Quad Cities. Which makes people fear that maybe the second most recognized american symbol in the world after coke will start moving jobs overseas slso.
the political climate is changing, and only those campaigns who maintain comprehensive contact with the electorate will be able to respond to those changes. there is no question that the laesch campaign has maintained contact with the netroots. but it doesn’t appear that they have the same close relationship with the electorate. the momentum from being the 2006 candidate was squandered (partially, perhaps even majorly, because laesch took time to get married). the fact that they didn’t have the most signatures, or raised the most, even in the small dollar category, is evidence of this.
the point on money has already been made. foster has not only committed his own resources, he’s raising money, significantly from new sources. stein has made the effort, and we will see how that’s going on his next report. laesch has an extraordinary burn rate; it’s a good thing that he’s got signs left over and volunteers committed to helping his campaign.
which leaves their organizations. in a sense, this isn’t just about their organizations, but their potential to scale up. the laesch campaign seems to recognize that they are it, with “little or no help expected from the national or state Democratic Party.” given their organizational structure, they may not be able to handle a massive influx of assistance, even if they received it.
the stein campaign still suffers from the lack of a campaign manager, someone who conducts the chorus, as it were. stein has a capable staff, but not enough of it (especially for the special election). no one doubts that jotham has worked hard as a candidate — he’s raised the money to demonstrate that — but he’ll need more people working hard if he’s going to win a special election.
in a way, the stein campaign recognizes that they have to scale up. they say that their keys for winning are:
Talking to the voters, putting a good field plan for the final
stretch into place. Focusing our message so that our supporters know they
can vote twice for our candidate.
good field plan requires lots of leadership and experienced captains.
foster’s campaign is clearly the most scaleable. in fact, scaleability seems to have been part of the plan from the very beginning. they have been taking on staff and apparently training volunteers. the campaign has plans to integrate local and state democrats into their gotv efforts after the primary is decided. it is this inherent scaleability that gives foster not only the best chance to win the special primary, but a decent shot at taking the seat blue.
how can this be? laesch’s supporters continue to trumpet his stands on the issues and believe that this will deliver him to victory. the problem with that is that voters don’t even know laesch’s name, let alone his stands on the issues — and that assumes that voters in the 14th would prefer laesch’s stands to the other candidates. laesch has neither the money nor the organization to effectively deliver his message to the electorate. activists and ideologues may focus on issues and where candidates stand, but voters rarely do. voters may become vaguely aware of a congressional candidate’s message, but they have neither the time nor inclination to go much beyond that. in the end, the perceived advantage that laesch had — that he had run before — is minimized by the fact that his name recognition was in the high thirties among the general electorate, and mid-40s for democratic voters. he has better name recognition now, before foster’s and stein’s mail starts to drop. but those numbers don’t make him secure from the challenge. by contrast, seals’ name recognition is almost double laesch’s.
the message that voters will see this election follows the money and the organization. in both these areas, foster’s campaign has been out front.